Bitcoin estimated at $1 million by 2033... 96.1% is not a prediction rate
Original headline비트코인 2033년 100만달러 추정…96.1%는 예측률 아니다
Not investment advice. Muhabbit scores how much a story may matter, not which way to trade.
A power-law model fitted to 5,696 daily Bitcoin price observations from July 2010 to February 2026 explained 96.1% of log-price variation, with the study published in the journal Nonlinear Science estimating that BTC price scales with the 5.69th power of time elapsed since the January 3, 2009 genesis block. The authors stress that 96.1% is the share of historical log-price movement the model captures, not a probability that Bitcoin reaches $1 million by 2033, nor a 3.9% trading error or a claim that daily volatility is equally well explained. The finding matters because the widely cited seven-figure 2033 estimate rests on a curve fit to past data rather than a forecast with confidence levels. What to watch next is whether Bitcoin's price continues to track the modeled power-law trajectory, and how the fit holds as new daily data extend beyond the February 2026 sample.
Muhabbit's AI wrote this summary in its own words from TokenPost's report and translated it from Korean. It can get details wrong, so check the source.
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