Bitcoin's 3-Month Median Down 31%... Rises Three Times in the Year Following Midterm Elections

Bitcoin has posted positive 12-month returns after all three past U.S. midterm elections, averaging 53.8% with a median of 45%, according to an analysis by IOSG Ventures, though the median 3-month post-election return was -31%. The firm also found that the S&P 500 rose in all 19 midterm election years from 1950 to 2022, based on daily closing price data. The findings suggest that while midterm cycles have historically favored risk assets over a 12-month horizon, short-term weakness immediately after elections has been the norm for Bitcoin. Investors should watch whether the current cycle follows the historical pattern of early post-election drawdowns followed by 12-month gains, as seen in 2022 when returns turned positive within three months of the election.