Kalshi, Polymarket Predictors Favor Democrats to Sweep 2026 Midterms

Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets currently favor Democrats to win both chambers of Congress in the 2026 midterms, though the platforms' credibility took a hit after President Lula's upset runoff victory in Brazil, which many contracts had priced against. The two platforms have built reputations as relatively reliable election forecasters, making their current positioning a signal watched by political strategists and traders alike. The muddled record underscores the inherent volatility of prediction markets, which can swing sharply on polling shifts, candidate announcements, and macro events. Traders should watch whether the Democrat-sweep contracts hold their pricing through upcoming primaries and polling releases, and whether volume and liquidity deepen as the election cycle progresses.