‘We were wrong’: From Dewey to Trump, the polling misses hanging over the 2026 midterm forecasts | Fortune
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The 2026 midterm forecasts are under scrutiny as polling misses from the 1948 Truman-Dewey upset to the Trump era raise questions about predictive accuracy. The article cites the Chicago Tribune's premature "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline as a cautionary example of how polling and media projections can misjudge outcomes. It notes that similar errors have recurred in recent elections, including those involving Donald Trump, undermining confidence in survey-based forecasts. The piece, published November 3, 2026, by Steven John, argues that these historical failures loom over current midterm predictions. Investors and analysts should watch whether 2026 polling proves more reliable than past cycles or repeats familiar misses.
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Named in this story
2026 midterm elections, Thomas E. Dewey, Harry Truman, Donald Trump, Chicago Tribune