Polymarket: 75.5% probability of Democrats sweeping both the House and Senate

On U.S. midterm Election Day (Nov 3), prediction market Polymarket showed Democrats with a strong edge for congressional control: a 94.5% probability of winning the House and 75.5% for the Senate, with the $60M+ "power balance of both chambers" market pricing a Democratic sweep at 75.5%, a split outcome (GOP holds Senate, Dems take House) at 18.5%, and a Republican sweep at just 5.5%. In key Senate races, Democrats led in Texas (Talarico 73.5% vs. Paxton 25.5%), Michigan (El-Sayed 78.5%), Maine (Troy Jackson 73.5% vs. incumbent Collins 27.5%), Ohio (Sherrod Brown 72.5%), Alaska (Peltola 72.5%), and Kansas (Hamilton 61.5%), while Iowa remained near even (Turek 51.5% vs. Hinson 48.5%). In governor races, Republicans were favored to hold Texas (Abbott 60.4%) and Florida (Donalds 64.5%), while Democrats led in Ohio (Acton 82.5% vs. Ramaswamy 17.5%), Nevada, and Wisconsin. The odds matter as a real-money signal of potential divided or unified government, which markets watch for implications on fiscal policy and regulation. Watch for how these probabilities shift as actual results come in, particularly in the near-even Iowa Senate race and the tight Senate contests that will determine whether the 75.5% sweep pricing holds.