Ukraine’s interest rate at 16.5%; 2026 growth rate projected at -0.4%

Ukraine's central bank raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 16.5% from 16.0%, effective October 30, citing elevated price pressure and worsening inflation expectations. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) announced the decision at its October 29 monetary policy meeting, saying the hike is intended to support the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated assets and stabilize the foreign exchange market. September consumer prices rose 10.0% year-on-year and 2.1% month-on-month, per the State Statistics Service, while the NBU's core inflation measure climbed 8.8% year-on-year. The central bank pointed to fuel price increases tied to the Middle East conflict and Russian strikes on warehouse and logistics facilities as key inflation drivers. The NBU also projects the economy will contract 0.4% in 2026. Watch for the next policy meeting and incoming inflation prints to gauge whether further tightening or a hold is in store.