Apple ($AAPL) beats earnings estimates by 71%... 47% predict a rise on the first trading day

OKX prediction market contracts showed a 71% implied probability that Apple's (AAPL) quarterly earnings would beat market expectations, and a 47% implied probability that the stock would rise on the first full trading day after the release, per Odaily. At the same time, Palantir (PLTR) contracts implied an 84% probability of an earnings beat and 62% for a first-day gain. Both companies are scheduled to report results early on the 3rd, Korea time. The contracts separately ask whether quarterly results will exceed estimates and whether the stock will rise on the first full trading day after the report, meaning Apple's 47% does not represent the probability of a gain conditional on a beat. The figures offer a snapshot of how prediction markets are pricing earnings outcomes for major tech names, with the gap between beat probabilities and first-day gain probabilities suggesting markets see upside surprises as not fully translating into stock gains. Watch for how these implied probabilities move as the reporting dates approach and how realized results compare with the market-implied odds.